The Baseball Reader

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Mickey Mantle's Final Seasons Were Better Than We Thought

by Harold Friend

Mickey Mantle's last solid season was 1964, although he did fairly well in 1966. In 1964, Mickey hit .303 with 35 home runs, 111 RBIs, and a .423 on base average. Nineteen sixty six was not as good, when Mickey hit .288 with 23 home runs, but 1966 was followed by two sub par seasons, after which Mickey retired. Today, forty-one years later, there is a tendency to excuse or even disregard Mickey's last few seasons, which has resulted in Mickey being ranked higher among baseball's greats today than when he played.

Mickey Mantle's Last Two Seasons Were Better Than We Thought

The perspectives the passage of time provides produced the realization that Mickey Mantle's final two seasons were not as terrible as once believed. In 1967, Mickey batted only .245, but the league batting average was .236, which put Mickey's average in the league's top half. Only four American League players (Yastrzemski, F. Robinson, Kaline, and Scott) batted at least .300. Mickey managed to hit 22 home runs, had a .391 on base average, which is considered outstanding today, and slugged .434.

Only ONE .300 HItter

In 1968, the Year of the Pitcher, Mickey hit an anemic .237, but the league hit only .230. The 1906 World Champion Chicago White Sox are called the "Hitless Wonders" because they became World Champions with a .230 team batting average, but In 1968, the entire American League averaged only .230. Mickey's .237 average was terrible, but in context, it was no worse, and even slightly better, than average. The 1968 Yankees hit an incredible .214, which today seems unbelievable. Only Carl Yastrzemski hit .300, winning the batting title with a 301 mark, which is the lowest batting avenge for any batting champion.

Mickey Still Walked

Pitchers always feared Mickey. In 1967 he drew 107 walks, and in 1968, he walked 106 times. Of course, there were no other real offensive threats on those Yankees' teams, but Mickey had the discipline to wait for his pitch. His 22 home runs in 1967 were eighth best in the league, which was a poor showing for MICKEY MANTLE, but it was more than respectable.

Just "Another Out"

The fact that in 2009, a strikeout is considered "just another out" has helped Mickey's legacy. Of course, a strikeout is not just another out, as all the runners on third base with one out can confirm, but when he played, Mickey was excoriated for his strikeouts. In 1952, Mickey hit .311 with 23 home runs, which a vast improvement over his rookie season, but the newspapers and baseball magazines, such as Sport, ignored Mickey's offensive output and complained that he had to cut down on his strikeouts. In 2009, when Airzona's Mark Reynolds strikes out 204 times, no one denigrates Mickey for having struck out 1710 times in his career.

Revised MIckey Mantle Statistics

It is unfair and similar to a college professor eliminating her students worst test scores for the year, but it is almost irresistible. What would Mickey's record have been if his last four seasons were eliminated? He would have batted .309 with a .429 on base average and a .582 slugging average. His home run total would drop from 536 to 454, and his RBIs would be 1298 compared to 1509. Juggling statistics is interesting, but in Mickey Mantle's case, it merely confirms what those who saw him play already knew. He was greater than we thought.

References:

Mickey Mantle at Baseball-Reference

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Why Mickey Mantle Has Gotten Better

by Harold Friend

During most his career, Mickey Mantle was ranked among the top two or three players in the game. From 1956-64, it was either Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, or Henry Aaron, but over the last few decades, evaluating players statistically has resulted in Mickey Mantle becoming better in 2009 than he was when he was an active player. This is NOT an attempt to claim that any one of the three was greater.


On Base Average Was Rarely Mentioned Until the Late 1950s

In the 1950s, the first most important statistic was batting average. The best hitters were considered those who batted at least .300, and anything less than .270 was bad. On base average was rarely mentioned until the late 1950s. Instead, the number of walks a batter accumulated was given, but usually with the disclaimer that a walk was rarely as good as a hit.

Mickey's Regret

Mickey Mantle hit .353 in 1956 and .365 in 1957, but his third best average was .321 in 1962, when he had only 377 at bats and appeared in only 123 games. Mickey finished with a .298 lifetime average, and has said many times that he regretted he didn't hit .300. Willie Mays batted .302, and Henry Aaron hit .305, but Mickey drew an inordinate number of walks.

Walks Made 1957 a Great Mickey Mantle Season

In 1957, when he was bothered by a terrible case of shin splints, which limited his playing time, Mickey walked 146 times and had a .512 on base average. The emphasis, however, was that Mickey hit only 34 home runs, batted in only 94 runs, and didn't even have 500 at bats. Today, Mickey's 1957 is considered by some as the best of his career - even better than his Triple Crown season of 1956.

On Base Average for MIckey Mantle, Willie Mays, and Henry Aaron

Willie Mays' best on base average was .425 in 1971, when he hit only .271 with 112 walks. Henry Aaron's best was .410, also in 1971, when he hit .327 with 71 walks. Lifetime, Mickey had a .421 on base average, compared to Willie's .384 and Henry's .374. Mickey had Yogi Berra, Bill Skowron, Roger Maris, and Elston Howard in the batting order, while Willie had Don Mueller, Hank Sauer, Orlando Cepeda, and Willie McCovey, and Henry had Eddie Mathews, Joe Adcock, Joe Torre, Felipe Alou, Rico Carty, and Darrell Evans. Mantle was willing to take a walk. Mays and Aaron swung the bat more.

On Base Average Plus Slugging Average

OPS is the sum of a batter's on base average and slugging average. Its emphasis has helped Mickey's ranking tremendously. Mickey Mantle had a .557 slugging average. So did Willie Mays. Henry Aaron slugged .555. It couldn't get much closer, but because of his walks, Mickey's OPS is .978 compared to Willie's .941 and Henry's .929. The league OPS when Mickey played was .715, when Willie played it was .730, and when Henry played, it was .722.

Statistics can be used to support many positions. It is undeniable that Henry Aaron hit 219 more home runs than Mickey Mantle, and that Willie Mays hit 124 more home runs than Mickey Mantle. Modern statistics helps to illuminate some of Mickey Mantle's accomplishments that were not as well appreciated when he played.

References:

Mickey Mantle at Baseball-Reference

Willie Mays at Baseball-Reference

Henry Aaron at Baseball-Reference


 
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