RPI or Let's Trade Ichiro for Bobby Kielty
by Harold Friend
There is a relatively recently created statistic called Run Production Index, or RPI. It is based on the premise that the most valuable hitters are those who produce runs, by either batting them in or scoring them. RPI is calculated by adding RBIs and runs scored, subtracting home runs (a batter who hits a home run gets both an RBI and a run scored so home runs must be subtracted to avoid double credit) and dividing that number by the sum of at bats and walks.
RPI = (RBIs +R –HR)/(AB +BB)
Lou Gehrig had 1,995 RBIs, scored 1,888 runs, hit 493 home runs and walked 1,508 times in 8,001 at bats in his career. Lou’s career RPI of .357 is calculated as follows:
RPI = (RBIs + Runs – HR) / (AB + BB)
RPI = (1,995 +1,888 –493) / (8,001 +1,508) = .357.
The following table is fascinating:
PLAYER RPI OBA
Gehrig .357 .447
Ruth .351 .474
Mantle .269 .421
Gwynn .237 .388
Boggs .227 .415
Rodriguez .301 .388
Bonds .279 .444
Suzuki .225 .379
Ashburn .196 .396
The Problem With RPI
The problem with RPI is that it cannot account for a player’s statistics that depend on his teammates’ performance. A batter may have an excellent on base average but may not score as many runs as a player with a lower OBA because his teammates are offensively challenged. A batter may have a high batting average and a high slugging average but not have as many RBIs as a player with a lower batting average and a lower slugging average for the same reason.
Richie Ashburn Hit .350 with an RPI of .181
In 1958, Richie Ashburn’s RPI was a lowly .181. He won the National League batting title with a .350 average, stole 30 bases, had 215 hits, 97 walks, and a .400 OBA. Ashburn, affectionately referred to by his teammates as the “right wing center fielder” because of his political views, scored 98 runs and had 33 RBIs. Richie reached base 312 times but scored only 98 runs.
Teammates Affected Ashburn's Runs Scored and RBIs
The 1958 Phillies scored 664 runs or an average of 4.31 runs a game, had a .336 OBA and a .400 slugging average. Harry Anderson led the team with 23 home runs and 97 RBIs. When Richie Ashburn reached base, there was no one to consistently move him around to score. Since he led off, there was no base runner for approximately 150 of his at bats, and with the pitcher preceding Ashburn in the lineup every time but Richie’s first at bat, the chances of having a runner in scoring position was less than for someone batting in any other slot. The Phillies’ eighth place batters included Ted Kazanski (.228), Chico Fernandez (.230), and Carl Sawatski (.230) among others, which added to Ashburn’s woes.
Lyn Lary and the 1931 Yankees
Lyn Lary played shortstop for the 1931 Yankees. They scored 1067 runs or an average of 6.88 runs a game, had a .380 OBA and a .457 slugging average. Lary batted .280, stole 13 bases, had 171 hits, 88 walks, and a .376 OBA. Lary scored 100 runs and had 107 RBIs. Lyn Lary reached bases 259 times. His RPI was .282 or 101 points higher than Ashburn’s, who by all measures EXCEPT RPI, had a better season than Lary.
Lary Was Part of A Strong Batting Order
Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth led both the 1931 Yankees’ offense and the league with 46 home runs each. Lyn Lary usually batted seventh, although he occasionally hit sixth or second and came to the plate with runners on base much more than did Richie Ashburn. When Lary hit seventh, he had usually had Bill Dickey (.327) hitting behind him. When he hit sixth, he had Dickey and Tony Lazzeri (.267) follow him. Ben Chapman (.315) and Lou Gehrig (.341) often preceded him.
Lary's RPI was 101 Points Higher Than Ashburn's
A measure of a player’s offensive value must account for the context in which the player bats. Richie Ashburn reached base 312 times, scored 98 times, and had 33 RBIs. Lyn Lary reached base 259 times, scored 100 times, and had 107 RBIs. Lary scored 2 more runs, batted in 74 more runs, reached base 53 FEWER times than Ashburn, but had an RPI that was 101 points HIGHER than Richie Ashburn’s. The reason is simple. He played on a team that scored 403 more runs than Ashburn’s team, had a much greater chance of scoring when he reached base, and had more runners on base when he batted.
Two Factors RPI Does Not Control
A method used to measure of a hitter’s value cannot penalize the hitter because of his situation. To drive in runs, there must be base runners. With the bases empty, only a home run will produce an RBI. To score runs, a player must be driven in by his teammates unless he hits a home run. RPI does not control those two factors and provides results that are misleading.
Ichiro Suzuki: 262 Hits, a .372 BA, and a .203 RPI
Ichiro Suzuki is an excellent example. In 2004, Ichiro set a record with 262 hits in a season. He walked 49 times to reach base 311 times, scored 101 runs, and had 60 RBIs. He hit .372 with a .414 OBA. Ichiro’s RPI was an anemic .203. The Mariners scored 698 runs.
Was Bobby Veach in 1922 Better Than Barry Bonds in 2004?
In 2004, Barry Bonds hit .362, had 135 hits, 232 walks, and a .609 OBA. The last two are single season records. Bonds scored 129 runs or almost once for every hit and he had 101 RBIs. Bonds’ RIP was .306. The Giants scored 850 runs. In 1922, Tigers’ outfielder Bobby Veach, a fine player, hit .327. had 42 walks and 202 hits to reach base 244 times. His .323 RIP was 17 points HIGHER than Bonds’ .306. One simple question. How can RPI conclude that the 2004 Barry Bonds, who walked 232 times and had 135 hits, reaching base 357 times, ranks below Bobby Veach, who walked 42 times and had 202 hits, reaching base 244 times?
Trade Ichiro Suzuki for Bobby Kielty According to RPI
RPI is an interesting statistic that helps create a picture of a player’s offensive contribution, but it cannot be used to summarily conclude that a player with a low RPI is not a great player. Ichiro Suzuki has .225 RPI. Is there anyone who would not rank him among the all time great players? Ichiro has a .333 batting average, a .379 OBA, a .437 slugging average, and averages about 40 steals a season. But according to RPI, Craig Monroe (.237), Marcus Thames (.235), Emil Brown (.233), and Bobby Kielty (.226) all are all more valuable offensive players than Ichiro because they all have a higher RPI than Ichiro. Would anyone want to be Mariners’ general manager Bill Bavasi if he traded Ichiro for any of the above players?
References:
http://www.retrosheet.org/
http://www.baseball-reference.com/
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/
There is a relatively recently created statistic called Run Production Index, or RPI. It is based on the premise that the most valuable hitters are those who produce runs, by either batting them in or scoring them. RPI is calculated by adding RBIs and runs scored, subtracting home runs (a batter who hits a home run gets both an RBI and a run scored so home runs must be subtracted to avoid double credit) and dividing that number by the sum of at bats and walks.
RPI = (RBIs +R –HR)/(AB +BB)
Lou Gehrig had 1,995 RBIs, scored 1,888 runs, hit 493 home runs and walked 1,508 times in 8,001 at bats in his career. Lou’s career RPI of .357 is calculated as follows:
RPI = (RBIs + Runs – HR) / (AB + BB)
RPI = (1,995 +1,888 –493) / (8,001 +1,508) = .357.
The following table is fascinating:
PLAYER RPI OBA
Gehrig .357 .447
Ruth .351 .474
Mantle .269 .421
Gwynn .237 .388
Boggs .227 .415
Rodriguez .301 .388
Bonds .279 .444
Suzuki .225 .379
Ashburn .196 .396
The Problem With RPI
The problem with RPI is that it cannot account for a player’s statistics that depend on his teammates’ performance. A batter may have an excellent on base average but may not score as many runs as a player with a lower OBA because his teammates are offensively challenged. A batter may have a high batting average and a high slugging average but not have as many RBIs as a player with a lower batting average and a lower slugging average for the same reason.
Richie Ashburn Hit .350 with an RPI of .181
In 1958, Richie Ashburn’s RPI was a lowly .181. He won the National League batting title with a .350 average, stole 30 bases, had 215 hits, 97 walks, and a .400 OBA. Ashburn, affectionately referred to by his teammates as the “right wing center fielder” because of his political views, scored 98 runs and had 33 RBIs. Richie reached base 312 times but scored only 98 runs.
Teammates Affected Ashburn's Runs Scored and RBIs
The 1958 Phillies scored 664 runs or an average of 4.31 runs a game, had a .336 OBA and a .400 slugging average. Harry Anderson led the team with 23 home runs and 97 RBIs. When Richie Ashburn reached base, there was no one to consistently move him around to score. Since he led off, there was no base runner for approximately 150 of his at bats, and with the pitcher preceding Ashburn in the lineup every time but Richie’s first at bat, the chances of having a runner in scoring position was less than for someone batting in any other slot. The Phillies’ eighth place batters included Ted Kazanski (.228), Chico Fernandez (.230), and Carl Sawatski (.230) among others, which added to Ashburn’s woes.
Lyn Lary and the 1931 Yankees
Lyn Lary played shortstop for the 1931 Yankees. They scored 1067 runs or an average of 6.88 runs a game, had a .380 OBA and a .457 slugging average. Lary batted .280, stole 13 bases, had 171 hits, 88 walks, and a .376 OBA. Lary scored 100 runs and had 107 RBIs. Lyn Lary reached bases 259 times. His RPI was .282 or 101 points higher than Ashburn’s, who by all measures EXCEPT RPI, had a better season than Lary.
Lary Was Part of A Strong Batting Order
Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth led both the 1931 Yankees’ offense and the league with 46 home runs each. Lyn Lary usually batted seventh, although he occasionally hit sixth or second and came to the plate with runners on base much more than did Richie Ashburn. When Lary hit seventh, he had usually had Bill Dickey (.327) hitting behind him. When he hit sixth, he had Dickey and Tony Lazzeri (.267) follow him. Ben Chapman (.315) and Lou Gehrig (.341) often preceded him.
Lary's RPI was 101 Points Higher Than Ashburn's
A measure of a player’s offensive value must account for the context in which the player bats. Richie Ashburn reached base 312 times, scored 98 times, and had 33 RBIs. Lyn Lary reached base 259 times, scored 100 times, and had 107 RBIs. Lary scored 2 more runs, batted in 74 more runs, reached base 53 FEWER times than Ashburn, but had an RPI that was 101 points HIGHER than Richie Ashburn’s. The reason is simple. He played on a team that scored 403 more runs than Ashburn’s team, had a much greater chance of scoring when he reached base, and had more runners on base when he batted.
Two Factors RPI Does Not Control
A method used to measure of a hitter’s value cannot penalize the hitter because of his situation. To drive in runs, there must be base runners. With the bases empty, only a home run will produce an RBI. To score runs, a player must be driven in by his teammates unless he hits a home run. RPI does not control those two factors and provides results that are misleading.
Ichiro Suzuki: 262 Hits, a .372 BA, and a .203 RPI
Ichiro Suzuki is an excellent example. In 2004, Ichiro set a record with 262 hits in a season. He walked 49 times to reach base 311 times, scored 101 runs, and had 60 RBIs. He hit .372 with a .414 OBA. Ichiro’s RPI was an anemic .203. The Mariners scored 698 runs.
Was Bobby Veach in 1922 Better Than Barry Bonds in 2004?
In 2004, Barry Bonds hit .362, had 135 hits, 232 walks, and a .609 OBA. The last two are single season records. Bonds scored 129 runs or almost once for every hit and he had 101 RBIs. Bonds’ RIP was .306. The Giants scored 850 runs. In 1922, Tigers’ outfielder Bobby Veach, a fine player, hit .327. had 42 walks and 202 hits to reach base 244 times. His .323 RIP was 17 points HIGHER than Bonds’ .306. One simple question. How can RPI conclude that the 2004 Barry Bonds, who walked 232 times and had 135 hits, reaching base 357 times, ranks below Bobby Veach, who walked 42 times and had 202 hits, reaching base 244 times?
Trade Ichiro Suzuki for Bobby Kielty According to RPI
RPI is an interesting statistic that helps create a picture of a player’s offensive contribution, but it cannot be used to summarily conclude that a player with a low RPI is not a great player. Ichiro Suzuki has .225 RPI. Is there anyone who would not rank him among the all time great players? Ichiro has a .333 batting average, a .379 OBA, a .437 slugging average, and averages about 40 steals a season. But according to RPI, Craig Monroe (.237), Marcus Thames (.235), Emil Brown (.233), and Bobby Kielty (.226) all are all more valuable offensive players than Ichiro because they all have a higher RPI than Ichiro. Would anyone want to be Mariners’ general manager Bill Bavasi if he traded Ichiro for any of the above players?
References:
http://www.retrosheet.org/
http://www.baseball-reference.com/
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/
posted by Yankee27us at
9/17/2007
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